You really have to wonder what long term effect these closures of large Sundowner trailer outlets will have in the marketplace.  With Milbrook going out, now Sundowner closing this store and other Sundowner dealers not doing well, how will this effect the value of a Sundowner trailer?  Frequently you see dealers selling Sundowner trailers for dealer invoice.  Selling at cost cannot keep the doors open long term.  If these outlets continue to close, these trailers will flood the market at financial institution, fire-sale prices.  What level will Sundowner trailers price deflate to?  My initial guess is 30%, but only the market will decide based on the amount of distressed inventory that is available.

Any thoughts on this deflation??  Is it possible that there will be no deflation at all??

I agree that the flood of less expensive trailers has diluted the market and forced dealers selling high end product to reduce margins. 

I doubt Sundowner will go out, I am speaking about the dealers that carry Sundowner closing down.  It will really depend on Sundowner's fixed cost structure, which we already see them taking measures to reduce fixed costs.  We have seen two of the largest stores in the Midwest close. It seems to me there could be a domino effect as this distressed Sundowner inventory continues to hit the market it is likely to further hamper the dealers ability to sell, even at the break even points we see many Sundowner dealer advertising at today.  I liken this effect to what we have seen in the housing markets the past couple years; a flood of inventory that cannot be sold and prices continuing to drive downward because more distressed inventory continues to hit the market.  I liken this to the housing market because the foreclosures continue to hit the market and banks are taking larger and larger losses to get these assets off the books.  If this is the case, I think we are only in the early stages of seeing this Sundowner value deflation.

I believe that we will see larger deflation on the high end (100k+) Sundowners because the price deflation is more due to the added risk of bringing on this inventory.

On a positive note, I thought that maybe the Sundowner market will be large enough to absorb this, but I think only time will tell.  The more dealers that close, if any more dealers close at all, will be the real factor in my unofficial opinion.

Has anyone, other than me, considered any of this?

I also think somewhat along the lines as Bill.  The economy is hurting the big trailer market. 

 I am shopping for my dream trailer but am having a hard time finding exactly what I want and don't want to order. I am prepared to spend the money for the right trailer which will definately be in the 100k+ range. But,  I am going to the bigger events and just seeing the same big trailers. I am being told that hardly no dealers are building big ones for the fall shows to speculate on.  Then there is also the problem of getting a good trade price for a barely used upper end trailer.

You got that right BREAKDOWN!! Been working on trailer lights most of the day. These L.E.D.'s that have gotten moisture inside.... No workie!!

Too many trailer to count, 179 over 100K.... That's alot of money tied up. I think you'll see more mfg. closings, auctions, bank forclosures soon. Nobody's buying alot of whole goods. Market is flooded with new and nice new trailers. When everybody started building aluminum trailers years ago, most everyone bought one, two or three of them. All the companies ramped up production, now everyone has a nice trailer that will last forever and aren't buying a new one every five years because the old one rusted away.... Wonder what kind of effect the presidential election will have on future trailer sales. Is now a good time to buy? Wait till the second week in November? Looks like a good time to buy a truck.... But even with all the discounts some up to 15K, they still cost too dang much!!

  May be some good deals for someone that has CASH for one of these new 2005, 2006 and 2007 model trailers.... Would hate to buy a new trailer and have to go buy new tires for it only because the ones on there are 5-6 years old... And the're starting to dry rot. Here's a new 2 horse SL, LQ, 2005 8010 Sundowner.. 

http://www.horsetrailerworld.com/home/trailerdetail.asp?ID=44489

The high end market has not been as weak as the middle markets.  The 75K+ trailers are still selling at about the same pace.  People who are trying to trade in high end trailers bought in 2004 & 2005 are seeing the gap widen between their purchase price to trade value because of two reasons:

1.  Back in 2004, 2005 and a little in to 2006, most premium manufacturers were taking 16+ weeks to build a trailer and the premium conversion companies were also in a similar time frame, so dealers had very little incentive to discount.  Dealers knew if they sold one of these units during the season that they would not have the opportunity to build and sell the unit again, so they held margins high, thus the purchases of trailers in this time frame were at a premium.

2.  Margins have eroded since 2006 and therefore dealers have less profit in the deals to write back to a trade.  Our philosophy has always been to price trailers fair and offer a fair trade value, not to over inflate our prices, stick it to the non-trade customers and offer ridiculous trade values to those with trades.  This practice has not always worked out for us. Some people are just fixed on their trade values or people think we are trying to steal their trade when in fact they are getting a mediocre deal because of the inflation of the front end price.  If there was a real source for horse trailer values, like NADA, this could curb this practice.

We have ordered a couple new 15' LQs for shows, but nothing extravagant or to past years levels. 

If that post wasn't such a thinly veiled, pathetic attempt to tarnish Outlaw's good name, it would be funny.  That person registered brand new just to post that garbage.  Completely anonymous too.  

I spoke with John Walker (John runs Outlaw) and we both had a good laugh.  It takes 5-6 weeks right now just to get a trailer in to production and another 7 weeks to convert a basic trailer, so Outlaw is 12-13 weeks out.  Would you be laying off people if you had a 13 week backlog?

Obviously someone has an axe to grind.